FBI Raid Fallout: Kalshi Secretly Paid Influencers to Smear Polymarket CEO

The financial underworld of prediction markets—a niche but rapidly growing sector that accurately predicted the outcome of the 2024 presidential election—has been thrust into the spotlight, not by the trades it facilitates but by a scandal that cuts to the heart of its integrity. Allegations have surfaced that Kalshi, a licensed competitor to the prediction market platform Polymarket, orchestrated a covert smear campaign targeting Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan in the wake of an FBI raid on his residence. The claims, bolstered by screenshots and insider accounts, paint a picture of cutthroat corporate rivalry gone rogue.

The Raid and Its Ripple Effects

On November 13, federal agents raided the SoHo apartment of Polymarket’s CEO, Shayne Coplan, in connection with an ongoing Department of Justice (DoJ) investigation. While the specifics of the investigation remain undisclosed, Polymarket had already run afoul of regulators. In 2022, it paid a $1.4 million fine to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and ceased accepting trades from U.S. users without proper licensure. For now, Coplan’s role in the investigation and whether users bypassed Polymarket’s geogate are unresolved questions.

But the raid set off more than just legal and regulatory alarms. Within days, social media became a battlefield. Influencers with massive followings began amplifying a narrative implicating Coplan and Polymarket in alleged criminal activities. According to screenshots and insider accounts, these posts weren’t coincidental—they were reportedly part of a paid public relations campaign orchestrated by Kalshi.

The Allegations: A Covert PR War

Screenshots viewed by our newsroom reveal Kalshi-linked individuals allegedly coordinating with influencers to shape public perception of Coplan and Polymarket. In one group chat, Keaton Inglis, a member of Kalshi’s growth team, is seen instructing former NFL wide receiver Antonio Brown, who boasts 2.2 million followers on X (formerly Twitter), to amplify the narrative. "Yo AB are you down to QT this with something like ‘this n**a seem guilty,’” Inglis allegedly wrote, referring to a post implying Coplan’s culpability. Brown later quote-tweeted the post, using almost identical phrasing.

Antonio Brown wasn’t alone. A number of influencers, including right-wing meme account Clown World (2.8 million followers) and Miami-based content creator Arynne Wexler (67,000 followers), reportedly received payments to push similar narratives according to original reporting by Pirate Wires. Clown World referred to Coplan as a “SBF LOOK ALIKE RAIDED BY FBI IN ILLEGAL BETTING SCHEME,” comparing him to disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. Meanwhile, Wexler’s posts emphasized the legality of Kalshi’s operations compared to Polymarket’s alleged transgressions.

In a particularly damning revelation, multiple influencers appear to have privately discussed their “deals” with Kalshi in group chats. Sources also claim that Kalshi attempted to pay journalists to write “hit pieces” on Polymarket. Gateway Pundit journalist Elijah Schaefer confirmed to us in a phone interview that a third party attempted to persuade him to publish content disparaging Polymarket and its CEO. Schaffer flatly refused the offer, citing journalistic integrity.

A Struggle for Dominance

If proven true, these allegations point to an all-out battle for dominance in the U.S.-based prediction markets sector. Kalshi, which received CFTC approval to operate as a designated contract market (DCM) in 2020, has been locked in legal and regulatory battles to expand its offerings. In September 2024, the company won a lawsuit against the CFTC, gaining the right to allow event contracts on political topics like congressional control. This legal victory sets Kalshi apart in a sector where Polymarket has faced restrictions.

However, Kalshi’s alleged tactics to sideline its competitor reveal a deeper, more troubling reality. Paying influencers to push anti-Polymarket narratives, without disclosing these financial arrangements, raises ethical questions about transparency and fairness in corporate competition. Worse, it suggests a willingness to exploit public opinion and media trust for financial gain.

Silence from Key Players

When approached for comment, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan declined to respond. Kalshi representatives, including CEO Tarek Mansour, as well as influencers linked to the allegations, such as Antonio Brown, Arynne Wexler, and Clown World, also remained silent. The absence of official statements leaves much of the public to rely on the screenshots and insider accounts, further clouding the waters.

The Fallout

The allegations against Kalshi and its alleged covert PR tactics may have broader implications for the industry. Prediction markets thrive on public trust and perceived fairness. If these accusations are substantiated, they could undermine confidence in the sector, casting doubt on the legitimacy of both players.

As for Polymarket, the shadow of the DOJ investigation looms large, threatening to derail its ambitions regardless of whether Kalshi’s alleged smear campaign succeeded.

In a world increasingly driven by influence and perception, the battle between Polymarket and Kalshi offers a cautionary tale: corporate rivalries are no longer confined to boardrooms—they play out on social media, fueled by shadowy transactions and blurred ethical lines. As the dust settles, the public will be watching closely to see if justice—or perhaps just the loudest voice—prevails.

We reached out to Antonio Brown for comment. He has not responded as of the time of this article.